According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has been in operation. From September 1st to 28th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,551 RMB/ton to 2,478 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 2.87% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 5.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.04%.
As the holiday approaches, some enterprises still have a high demand for inventory scheduling and actively reduce their quotations for shipment. The transaction is still acceptable, with most terminal purchases being the main focus. The supply and demand side has not fluctuated significantly for the time being, and some regions have basically completed downstream stocking before the holiday.
As of the close on September 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has declined. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2,488 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,513 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,462 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,470 RMB/ton in the end of the trading day, a decrease of 3% or 0.12% compared to the previous settlement. The trading volume was 942,020 lots, the position was 1,214,821 lots, and the daily increase was -84,952.
On the cost side, in the off-season of agricultural demand on the demand side, cautious procurement is the main focus for industrial demand. In the short term, the price of chemical coal may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream chloride: Luxi Chemical Plant may resume production, and chloride demand may increase; Downstream MTBE: The incoming materials of Lihuayi devices are about to be shipped, and the demand for MTBE may increase; The demand for formaldehyde and dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, Inner Mongolia Shilin 30, Ningxia Hening 30, and Xinjiang Xinlianxin 100,000 ton/year units are about to restart, with abundant supply in mainland China. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on September 27th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $354.50- $355.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 82.00-84.00 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 251.00-252.00 euros per ton, up 3 euros per ton.
In the future, it is predicted that some regions will basically end their downstream stocking before the holiday, and the supply will be slightly abundant. SunSirs Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may operate in a weak trend.
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