According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 28th, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5,538.00 RMB/ton, an overall increase of 6.09% compared to 5,220.00 RMB/ton on September 1st.

On September 28th, the fuel oil commodity index was 112.16, an increase of 0.2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 18.08% from the cycle's highest point of 136.91 points (2022-11-17), and an increase of 143.40% from the lowest point of 46.08 points on August 15th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

The domestic fuel oil price of 180CST continued to rise in September, while the international crude oil market rose in September. The domestic ship fuel blended raw material resources were relatively tight, and the price rose, supporting the domestic ship fuel market; In the ship supply market, coastal freight rates continue to be sluggish, and the situation of more ships and less cargo has not improved. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and transactions mainly require small orders. According to Business News, as of September 28th, the self extracting low sulfur quotation for 180CST of fuel oil in the Ningbo area of China National Combustion Corporation was 5,450 RMB/ton, and the self extracting low sulfur quotation for 120CST of fuel oil was 5,500 RMB/ton; The quotation for 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in the Shanghai region of China National Combustion Corporation is 5,650 RMB/ton, while the quotation for 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5,750 RMB/ton.

International crude oil fluctuated and rose in September. The Petroleum Exporting Organization and its allies (OPEC+) have extended the deadline for production cuts, while leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their plans to reduce crude oil supply by 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year. The significant continuous supply gap caused by the production cuts may lead to tight crude oil supply in the fourth quarter, and institutions and investors are generally bullish on oil prices; In addition, the demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States remains strong, especially with a significant increase in diesel futures. As the weather turns colder and winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, the peak season for heating oil demand begins, and the market remains optimistic, with positive factors supporting international oil.

Singapore's fuel inventory has decreased. It is reported that the Enterprise Development Authority (ESG) of Singapore has reduced its fuel inventory by 2.081 million barrels in the week ending September 27th, reaching a three-week low of 19.774 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventory increased by 373,000 barrels, reaching a 26 week high of 9.374 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory decreased by 245,000 barrels to a two-week low of 12.893 million barrels.

The rise in international crude oil has increased bullish sentiment in the domestic ship fuel market, coupled with an increase in domestic ship fuel blended raw material resources, supporting the domestic ship fuel market; In the ship supply market, downstream pre holiday stocking has ended, coastal freight rates have slightly declined, and the situation of more ships and less goods has not improved. Transactions mainly require replenishment. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is around 5500-5700 RMB/ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120CST is around 5600-5800 RMB/ton, which is a single negotiation. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may slightly increase after the holiday.

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