According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp continued to rise in September. On September 28th, the average market price of softwood pulp in the Shandong region was 6,150 RMB/ton, an increase of 12.43% compared to the average price of 5,470 RMB/ton on September 1st. On September 28th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in the Shandong region was 5,330 RMB/ton, an increase of 14.38% compared to the average price of 4,660 RMB/ton on September 1st.
By observing market changes, it can be seen that in early September, softwood pulp and hardwood pulp rose synchronously. In terms of supply, the quotation for external pulp was raised at the beginning of the month, which supported the domestic wood pulp market and eased the circulation of goods in the pulp spot market compared to the previous period. Subsequently, the quantity of wood pulp arriving at the port decreased, and the market showed a trend of destocking, resulting in a decrease in wood pulp inventory and an increase in wood pulp prices.
In late September, the increase in softwood pulp and hardwood pulp continued to expand, and market inventory continued to show a downward trend. In October, the quotation for external pulp continued to rise, providing support for the spot market prices of domestic wood pulp. Due to the tight supply of goods available for sale, businesses are generally reluctant to sell at low prices. In addition, downstream companies are entering a pre holiday stocking state, and market procurement enthusiasm has increased, resulting in a continuous increase in the price of wood pulp.
In terms of demand, orders for the Mid Autumn and National Day holidays in early September were gradually released, and the consumer market heat was heating up, with downstream demand gradually improving. Some downstream demand has increased, and the operating rates of double adhesive paper and coated paper have increased month on month. The utilization rate of domestic paper production capacity has also increased, and the white cardboard market continues to rise, stimulating some customers to stock up in advance, thus increasing demand for wood pulp. In addition, the central bank issued a strong signal to protect the exchange rate, and with corrective intervention, the offshore price fell from 7.36 to around 7.28, easing the cost pressure of imported pulp.
In late September, the spot market prices of imported wood pulp showed a strong upward trend, with some hoarders or manufacturers believing that the peak demand season for pulp is approaching. In addition, frequent price increase letters from upstream and downstream raw paper manufacturers have caused the overall transaction center of the paper industry chain to continue to shift upward, leading to a positive atmosphere enveloping the spot prices of wood pulp. The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have also affected the sustained high cost of pulp imports.
In terms of futures, on September 28th, the opening price of the SP2401 contract for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,190 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 6,288 RMB/ton, a daily increase of 1.36%, with 546,100 transactions and 259,109 positions.
SunSirs Wood Pulp Analysts believe that the current wood pulp market has strong supply and demand, and the operating situation of domestic paper mills after improving profits is still good. The price of wood pulp has increased significantly, and the positive factors in the spot market are relatively concentrated. It is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will maintain a high level in the short term.
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