According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the recent trend of natural rubber has been fluctuating and downward this week. The spot rubber market in China's natural rubber market was around 12,540 RMB/ton on September 29th and around 12,680 RMB/ton on September 25th, a decrease of 1.10%.

Influencing factors:

1. Limited output, active shipment from Qingdao port

On the supply side, it is still in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the production area is affected by more periodic rainfall. The rainfall in Thailand, Vietnam and other production areas is still high, which hinders the production of raw materials; The rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan production areas is repeated, and local glue production is hindered. The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate leads to an increase in import costs. The Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to destock, with an expected increase in inbound goods due to increased foreign production. The duration of destocking is limited, and a short-term bottom support for rubber prices is provided.

2. Tire companies have high operating rates and low inventory

On the demand side, rubber tire manufacturers are currently steadily scheduling production, and tire processing plants continue to operate at high operating rates. The operating rate of semi steel tires is at a high and relatively stable level, and enterprises are actively scheduling production, with centralized foreign trade shipments, and overall inventory of enterprises is low; The operating rate of all steel tires has slightly decreased, prices have increased, and goods are selling well, resulting in overall low inventory.

Regarding the future market, as rainfall decreases, a large amount of raw materials will be produced in the future, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market will expand. The current export situation of tire enterprises is good, and factories are operating at a high level. During the peak consumer season, the natural rubber market has some positive demand support. In addition, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has led to an increase in import costs. It is expected that the natural rubber market will be dominated by fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

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