According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market has declined in a narrow range. From October 7th to 13th, the price of asphalt in Shandong fell from 3,879 RMB/ton to 3,806 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.89%, a month on month increase of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.14%.

The rise and fall of the asphalt market in various regions of China vary, and the overall price increase in Northeast China is mainly due to the release of concentrated downstream stocking demand and the designated urgent need for work by Liaohe Petrochemical; The decline in the asphalt market in Shandong, North China, and East China is mainly driven by the sharp drop in international crude oil, with some arbitrage and low-priced resources flowing out of the region. In addition, intensified competition among brands and across regions has led to a downward pressure on spot transaction prices.

In terms of supply, the main production enterprises include Panjin Baolai's resumption of production, Qilu Petrochemical, and Dongming Petrochemical's normal production. In addition, the resumption of production by Wudi Xinyue has led to a decrease in overall supply in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased compared to the previous month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, in the short term, the situation on the mainland is volatile, and oil prices may intensify volatility, with an increase in amplitude. The mid-term supply-demand game will continue, with tight supply and slowing demand remaining the main themes of oil price trading. As of the close on October 12th, Brent crude oil futures have fallen, with the main contract settlement price at $86.00 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.2%.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively stable, with varying demand in different regions. The overall demand for asphalt is somewhat differentiated. Currently, there is still a demand for asphalt in China, but with the weather becoming colder, the overall demand is declining. The demand side of the asphalt market is influenced by bearish factors.

As of the close of October 13th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2401 was opened at 3,646 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,646 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,584 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,596 RMB/ton in the last trading day, an increase of 2 RMB/ton or 0.06% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 134,963 lots, the position was 274,664 lots, and the daily increase was 29,503.

In the future, the international crude oil price is weak and volatile, and the market demand is relatively stable. Some are mainly purchasing low-priced resources or executing their own contracts, and the pressure on refinery inventory is limited, gradually depleting social inventory. SunSirs asphalt analysts expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly sorted out.

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