According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal rose first and then fell last week. On October 12th, the energy index stood at 1,064 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 31.84% from the highest point of 1,561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and an increase of 108.22% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area have resumed production before the holiday, but the mainstream coal mines are still mainly supplied with long-term coal. The price of coal mines at the mouth of the pit is mainly stable, but some coal mines have adjusted up and down.

In terms of downstream ports, after the holiday, the price of thermal coal has increased, but there has been no significant improvement in actual trading volume. As prices rise, downstream acceptance of high priced thermal coal is not high, and there are fewer phenomena of seeking and asking prices. The cautious wait-and-see attitude is the main trend, resulting in poor transactions and a decline in thermal coal prices.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the prices of various coal types nationwide continued to rise in late September. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: The price of anthracite (washed in lump, volatile content≤8%) is 1,462.5 RMB/ton, an increase of 74.9 RMB/ton or 5.4% compared to the previous period. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 754.2 RMB/ton, an increase of 50.3 RMB/ton or 7.1% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 884.2 RMB/ton, an increase of 68.2 RMB/ton or 8.4% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal) is 994.2 RMB/ton, an increase of 73.9 RMB/ton or 8.0% compared to the previous period.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mines in terms of origin have been operating normally recently. In terms of downstream ports, prices have slightly declined after recent increases. In the later stage, as the weather cools, the demand for thermal coal from power plants may increase. In addition, in terms of policy, the autumn maintenance time of the Daqin Line has changed from the originally scheduled end of October 23 to October 18. In addition, the country has a high level of attention to energy in China, so the upward space may be limited. Specifically, it depends on downstream market demand.

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