1. Trend analysis
As shown in the figure above, the domestic copper price rose slightly. The average price of domestic spot copper at the beginning of the week was 45,355 RMB/ton, while that at the weekend was 45,646.67 RMB/ton, up 0.64%, down 4.84% year on year.
2. Market analysis
Shanghai copper and LME copper prices: the Shanghai copper index rebounded after falling to 45,390 RMB at the beginning of this week. It closed at 45,530 RMB at the end of the week, up 0.66%. This week, LME copper's three-month contract focus gradually moved up, with the price rising to $5,814.5 from a low of $5,638, and closing at $5,791 on Friday, up 2.41%.
At the beginning of this week, the market resumed work one after another, but the downstream open rate was limited. Now most enterprises in the country are preparing to resume production, but the actual production is expected to be 17 days later. East China and South China, where copper processing and terminal consumption are relatively concentrated, are also the places where the epidemic is more serious. Enterprises still face the dilemma of personnel flow and logistics not yet recovered when they return to work. The orders of processing enterprises are few and the delivery time is delayed, and the complete return to work is at least to the end of February. At present, the pressure superimposed logistics of the smelter is blocked, or the smelter is forced to reduce production or overhaul in advance.
3. Future prospects
According to the above situation, the copper analyst of non-ferrous branch of SunSirs believes that the short-term increase of domestic inventory is obvious, the downstream construction is not good, and the risk of sulfuric acid expansion is increased (sulfuric acid must be produced in the smelting process, and the storage capacity of sulfuric acid is a fixed value), which forces the smelter to reduce production or overhaul before the end of February. At the current rework peak, the impact of the uncertainty of the epidemic on the metal market demand is still ongoing. It is expected that copper The price maintained a narrow range of volatility.
Related listed companies: Jiangxi copper (600362), Tongling Nonferrous (000630), Yunnan Copper (000878).
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