Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the prices of rebar and wire rods in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai region fluctuated widely this week. As of the 20th, the average price of HRB400 rebar in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai region was about 3,681.78 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.42% compared to the beginning of the week; The average price of high line HPB300 was 3891.2 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.72% compared to the beginning of the week.

Market aspect:

As the weekend approached, the national engineering demand was 86,136 tons, with a 59% increase in demand compared to the previous trading day. From January to September, the national investment in real estate development reached 8,726.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% (calculated according to comparable standards); Among them, residential investment reached 6,627.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.4%. From January to September, the construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 8,156.88 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 5,742.5 million square meters, a decrease of 7.4%. The newly constructed area of houses less 72.123 million square meters, a decrease of 23.4%. Among them, the newly constructed residential area was 52.512 million square meters, a decrease of 23.9%. The completed area of houses is 487.05 million square meters, an increase of 19.8%. Among them, the completed residential area was 353.19 million square meters, an increase of 20.1%.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in September 2023, China exported 8.063 million tons of steel, a decrease of 219,000 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 2.6% month on month; From January to September, a total of 66.818 million tons of steel were exported, a year-on-year increase of 31.8%.

Inventory and Production

This week, the weekly production of rebar increased and the total inventory decreased; The weekly production and total inventory of wire rods have slightly decreased.

On the upstream side, the coke market continues to remain stable; The iron ore in the port fluctuated and fell back; The scrap steel market remained stable overall. The performance of rebar was relatively positive. Recently, steel mills had suffered significant losses, with increased production reductions and some steel mills increasing their price increases, resulting in an increased willingness to increase prices. Iron ore prices had shown a fluctuating trend, with marginal changes in demand expectations. Pay attention to the intensity and pace of production reduction. The coking coal panel will be vibrated and operated, with local supply being tight, and the increment of strict coal mine safety inspections is limited. The expected decline in coke production is strong.

Market outlook

It is expected that the rebar and wire rod will mainly experience narrow amplitude oscillations.

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