1  Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market continued to decline last week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2,155 RMB/ ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1,985 RMB/ ton, down 7.89% in the week. The price fell 11.88% on a month on month basis, down 10.67% on a year-on-year basis.

2  Market analysis

Products: due to the lack of logistics and the slow resumption of downstream methanol enterprises after the Spring festival, although the domestic methanol enterprises have started to work, the methanol market is still in a pattern of oversupply, especially in the northwest region where methanol needs to be exported in large quantities. The factory inventory is gradually increasing and the sales pressure is prominent. Last week, the price in Inner Mongolia fell to 1,400-1,530 RMB/ ton, and some fell by 250 RMB/ ton. The port's offer of methanol in US dollars had not been confirmed yet, and the paper goods offer was negotiated early in the week, and the fixed price of non-Iraqi goods was about $248-251.5/ ton. At present, in addition to the stable demand of MTO factory and other demands are relatively bleak. The dollar price holders say that the current supply of us gold plate is limited, so they wait and see.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: last week, the domestic formaldehyde market was light, and the overall situation was still in a large-scale shutdown. The downstream market wass in a state of shutdown, the upstream methanol market continued to fluctuate and fall, and the cost and demand were difficult to be favorable. In addition, the transportation was limited everywhere, so there was no transaction in the market. Under the influence of the overall negative, the short-term formaldehyde market is difficult to improve and will remain weak.

Acetic acid: last week, the domestic acetic acid market was light and stalemate. Due to the limited automobile transportation in the market, limited trading and investment among regions, the inventory of acetic acid manufacturers kept growing, while the start-up of the downstream acetic acid ester industry continued to be low, all the parking manufacturers were delayed to restart, and the start-up of PTA industry was also slowly declining, which led to the substantial positive and weak market demand.

DME: the domestic market price of DME was stable as a whole last week, and the prices of individual enterprises were adjusted flexibly. According to statistics, the overall operation of DME in China last week was about 4.85%, down 5.49% and 53.09% from the previous week. The overall low-level operation of domestic construction, even though the market traffic was not convenient and the actual transaction was less, the enterprise quotation was still weak and stable. The main reference price in Henan Province was 3,100-3,150 RMB/ ton.

3  Market Forcast

From the perspective of SunSirs: on the positive side, it is difficult to purchase raw materials and sell costs for methanol plants, and the production load of some methanol production enterprises is reduced; in Iran, the methanol plant shut down due to gas restriction at the early stage is still not recovered, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to decline in February. In terms of bad news, since the Spring Festival, domestic methanol downstream products have shown different performances, and the overall demand has declined. Except for the smooth commencement of acetic acid, DMF and other downstream products, the rest have decreased to varying degrees. During the Spring Festival, most methanol enterprises have normal production, while the traditional demand has dropped to the ice point of the year, and due to public safety emergencies, most of the methanol downstream enterprises that have stopped have not resumed work. The logistics recovery is very slow, and the pressure of raw material purchase and finished product sales of downstream methanol enterprises is prominent. After the festival, the main downstream construction starts will fall by 7-40%, such as acetic acid, MTO, MTBE, etc., which makes the domestic methanol demand worse. Although the methanol enterprises start to reduce by about 10%, they are still in the pattern of supply exceeding demand. According to the methanol analysts of SunSirs, the short-term methanol trend is still declining, However, many transaction prices fall below the cost line, and the decline is expected to slow down.

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