Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal on October 1st was 3,791 RMB/ton, and on October 26th, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 3,371 RMB/ton, with a decrease of 11.08% during the period.

Analysis review

The market for rapeseed meal in October was mainly weaker and downward. The import of rapeseed is expected to increase significantly in mid to late October and November, with loose domestic rapeseed supply and an expected increase in rapeseed meal output. According to data statistics, in September 2023, China imported 321,200 tons of rapeseed, a decrease of 18.91% month on month, and continued to increase significantly year-on-year, with a growth rate of 409.84%. In September 2023, domestic imports of rapeseed meal reached 177,600 tons, a decrease of 27.33% compared to the previous month. The fourth quarter is the off-season for aquaculture, and the market demand for rapeseed meal decreased, dragging down the market for rapeseed meal. The bearish sentiment in October mainly suppressed soybean meal market to fluctuate and decline, and the rapeseed meal market was dragged down.

In terms of soybean meal: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal on October 1st was 4,600 RMB/ton, and on October 26th, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,232 RMB/ton, with a decrease of 8.0% during the period. Due to the harvest season of American soybeans, the external market was bearish, and the soybean meal market was mainly oscillating and falling.

Market outlook

During late October and November, imported rapeseed is expected to arrive in large quantities at ports, coupled with the low season of rapeseed meal consumption; In the fourth quarter, American soybeans will be concentrated on the market, and the quantity of imported raw materials will remain high. Supply pressure is still there, and the soybean meal market is still weak to rise. It is expected that the rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate to be weaker.

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