Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes decreased slightly in October. At the beginning of the month, the quotation for 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,695 yuan/ton, but at the end of the month, it dropped to 4,572.5 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.61%.

Analysis review

In terms of raw materials, the prices of raw materials remained high, and the production costs of steel mills continued to rise. Some steel mills had chosen to reduce production for maintenance, and the reduction in production of tube billets in steel mills was not significant. However, some steel mills had shifted their production capacity to more profitable varieties, resulting in a slight decrease in the supply of tube billets. The management factory was facing pressure from three parties: high inventory, high costs, and weak demand. In order to ensure the normal operation of the factory, preferential incentives for downstream replenishment had a certain effect, but their sustainability was not good. There were many manufacturers in the mainstream market for seamless tubes, and most of them sold at low prices through bidding for various resources.

In terms of demand: It has entered the fourth quarter, with the weather turning cold in the north and heating seasons in North and Northwest China. Market demand was gradually shrinking, and merchants had weak expectations for the later market. The upward resistance of seamless tube market prices had increased, and the focus of demand in the later stage had shifted towards the south. However, southern merchants stated that the overall shipment was not ideal, and the speed of inventory consumption was slow. Traders often operated in a safe manner, replenishing or even directly shipping according to demand.

In terms of exports: According to the latest statistics from customs, China exported 465,200 tons of seamless tubes in September, an increase of 7.21% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 17.72%; From January to September, China exported 4.3449 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 24.74%. China imported 9,200 tons of seamless tubes, an increase of 8.24% month on month and 84% year-on-year; From January to September, China imported a total of 80,300 tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year decrease of 11.96%.

Market outlook

Overall, there was cost support from upstream and pressure from demand and inventory from downstream. November is a traditional off-season, and demand is unlikely to improve. It is expected that the seamless tube market will continue to operate weakly.

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