According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fluctuated within a narrow range. From October 7th to 31st (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,447 RMB/ton to 2,430 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.68%, with a maximum amplitude of 2.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.87%.
After the National Day holiday, influenced by international events, crude oil rose, coupled with a significant decline in port inventory, which boosted market sentiment and drove the domestic methanol market price to strengthen. Subsequently, influenced by the trend of commodities, the methanol futures market fell, and the atmosphere in the mainland market quickly weakened, causing the methanol market to fluctuate and consolidate.
In terms of cost and supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports are increasing, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature continues to decrease, the civil electricity load drops, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively low. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term replenishment, with on-demand replenishment. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see. The short-term chemical coal market may maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Lankao Huitong and Xinxiang Xinlianxin parking have reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: Ningbo Juhua plans to undergo maintenance, resulting in reduced demand for chloride; Downstream formaldehyde: The Luqiao plant in Guigang, Guangxi has started construction, and the demand for formaldehyde may increase; The demand for acetic acid is increasing as downstream acetic acid companies such as Sinopec Great Wall and Hubei Hualu gradually increase their load; The demand for MTBE has not changed much. The demand for methanol is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of one unit each in Shanxi Jiyang, Guizhou Chitianhua, Inner Mongolia Jiuding, Inner Mongolia Shilin, and Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Ningxia; One unit in Sichuan Daxing and Jiangsu has reduced production; Inner Mongolia and Baitai, Xinxiang Zhongxin, Ningxia Qinghua, Inner Mongolia Jiuding, Inner Mongolia Shilin, as well as Yunnan, Shandong, and Shanxi, each with one set of devices restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.
In terms of external trading, as of the close of October 30th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $346.00- $347.00/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 96.00-98.00 cents/gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 338.25-339.25 euros/ton, up 2.25 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, coal prices fluctuate weakly and there is currently no support for the market from costs. Domestic supply is gradually recovering, and downstream demand may change or be limited. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market may be in a weak position to consolidate and operate.
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