According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 27 to November 3, 2023, the first round of increase and decrease in the coke market was implemented. On November 3, the factory price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi Province was 2.125 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.26%.
In terms of supply: The coking coal market is temporarily stable, and the production situation in the mining area has been good recently. The supply of coking coal has recovered compared to the previous period, and the sales situation has been weak recently. Downstream coking enterprises purchase according to demand, and the inventory in the mining area has slightly increased. After the first round of lifting and lowering prices for coking enterprises, their profits were generally low, and they had a mentality of pressing prices for raw materials such as coking coal. Recently, they had a strong gaming mentality and maintained a just needed inventory replenishment.
This week, the first round of reduction in the coke market was implemented, with a cumulative decrease of 100-110 RMB/ton. After the first round of supply reduction, the overall profits of coke companies are low, while the prices of coking coal are still high, resulting in losses for some coke companies. Some companies have expressed that they may actively limit production in the future. With the decline in coke prices, some domestic traders are actively entering the market. Currently, coke inventory mainly flows out to the trading market, and coke inventory within coke enterprises is still operating at a low level. In terms of demand, the strengthening of the futures market in the steel market has driven up the prices of finished products. After the first round of lifting and lowering, the profits of the steel mills have recovered, but overall they are still at a low level, and the demand for coke remains high. At present, the sales of coke enterprises in the future market are still good, but there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand. After the first round of lifting and lowering prices is implemented, it is expected to maintain temporary stable operation in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the operation of coke enterprises and the sales of finished products.
The coke market in Shandong Port is operating weakly, with a quasi first level ex-warehouse price of around 2,230-2,300 RMB/ton and a first level ex-warehouse price of 2,330-2,400 RMB/ton. The port market price has slightly decreased, and there has been little change in inventory between the two ports, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
Freight prices are a barometer of port mentality, with a positive market attitude towards upward freight prices and a weak market attitude towards downward freight prices. This week, there has been little fluctuation in port inventory, with weak enthusiasm from traders to gather at the port, stable freight prices, and a wait-and-see market atmosphere. Actual transactions remain weak.
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