Since October, bearish factors have been dominant, with DDGS leading the decline, and raw material prices such as rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and corn all showing a downward trend. The feed sector has generally turned green. On November 6th, the feed raw materials were 1,138 points, an increase of 4 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 16.14% from the cycle's highest point of 1,357 points (2022-11-10), and an increase of 52.34% from the lowest point of 747 points on April 10th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2014 to the present)
After the National Day holiday, the overall market of feed raw materials entered a downward trend, with a comprehensive decline being the main trend, until November 6th. Among them, DDGS experienced the largest decline, exceeding 14%; Rapeseed meal took second place, with a decrease of over 12%; The decline in rapeseed meal and corn is close to 6%, with wheat being the smallest, with a decrease of less than 1%. The overall fluctuation in the feed raw material sector has fallen for more than a month.
During the National Day holiday, the soybean oil market in the outer market plummeted significantly. After the opening of the market, the soybean meal futures market plunged, and the spot market fell by more than 5%. The soybean meal market has experienced a brief consolidation period after a significant decline. Due to the concentrated listing of American soybeans and the dominance of bearish external markets, the demand for terminal feed has weakened, and the soybean meal market has oscillated and dropped by over 7% throughout October. Starting from November, the bearish sentiment was exhausted, and the soybean meal market rebounded slightly, not as much as the overall decline in October. On November 6th, soybean meal fell to 4,330 RMB/ton, a decrease of over 5% compared to early October.
Starting from November, South American soybeans have gradually entered the planting period, and the positive outlook for soybean meal futures has reappeared. In addition, the weather has become colder, rainy and snowy weather has hit, and transportation and logistics costs have increased. There are still positive factors supporting the feed raw material aspect, and the market will gradually recover in the future, with an expected upward trend. The rise in feed raw material prices in early November has already been reflected, with corn, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and DDGS improving to varying degrees, and soybean meal increasing by over 2%. Due to the large number of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, there is still a bearish outlook. It is expected that the feed raw material market will gradually break free from the decline in mid to late November, with an overall oscillating rise as the main trend.
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