1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the plate price fell on Monday (February 17, 2020). Puzhong Board (Material: Q235B; Specification: 20) The price on February 16 was 3,417 yuan / ton, and the price on February 17, was 3,382 yuan / ton, down 1.02% from the previous trading day. From a trend perspective, the price of plate may continue to fall in the short term.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

Last week, the current price trend of steel products was differentiated. The prices of disk threads and hot coils rebounded slightly, and the weekly increase exceeded 2%, while the spot price index fell slightly, and the prices of hot coils and threads fell by 1.88% and 1.49%, respectively, year-on-year; In terms of fundamental data, the resumption of work caused by the impact of the epidemic has been postponed, production of steel mills has started and production has fallen, and transportation has a greater impact. In early February, the stocks of the five major varieties all showed an increasing trend. Among them, rebar (3407, 22.00, 0.65%) had the largest inventory increase, accounting for 55.7% of the total inventory increase, followed by wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, The plate inventory increase is relatively small.

This week, companies continue to resume work, and transportation resumes, but upstream companies resume work significantly faster than downstream companies, steel stocks continue to grow significantly, and demand pressure is still large.

3. Future Forecast

Affected by the favorable macroeconomic and epidemic prevention and control last week, the prices of black-based commodity futures rebounded sharply. Among them, iron ore and coke rose the most, spot prices of steel products were different, and downstream companies were slow to resume work. Demand was severely hindered, and steel stocks Accumulated sharply, the spot price continued to decline slightly, showing a changing pattern of strong futures and weak spot.

With the acceleration of the resumption of work this week, the pressure of supply and demand in the industrial chain will appear. The upstream supply will recover faster, the terminal demand will be delayed, and the inventory of finished products will continue to accumulate sharply. Steel companies are experiencing the dual pressures of inventory explosion and tight cash flow. Passive production of steel has been reduced, and the demand for raw materials has also fallen slightly. After the restoration of transportation, the pressure on coal coke will also increase. This week, the fundamentals of black goods continue to run weakly. It is expected that in the short term, the steel plate market will continue to fall, and the plate price will continue to fall.

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