Since November, the market for BR has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 12th, the market price of BR in East China was 12,430 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.31% compared to 12,860 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.
The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and there is still support for the cost of BR. However, downstream tire factories have slightly decreased compared to the end of October, and demand for BR is weak. In addition, some maintenance equipment has been restarted in the early stage, resulting in a slight increase in the supply of BR. The factory price of BR has gradually decreased, and the BR market is weak and declining. As of November 12th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company's Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised its price by 12,100 RMB/ton. The domestic market quotation range for two barrels of oil BR is around 12,200 and 12,600 RMB/ton, and the quotation for private enterprise BR is between 11,800 and 12,100 RMB/ton.
Since November, the price of butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost of BR still has support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 12th, the price of butadiene was at 9,546 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.32% from the 9,516 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.
Since November, the natural rubber market has fluctuated in a narrow range, with a slight impact on BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 12th, the price was at 12,960 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.78% from the beginning of the month at 12,860 RMB/ton, and the low point during the cycle was at 12,840 RMB/ton.
Demand side: Since November, the construction of all steel tires has slightly declined, with cautious procurement of new orders and flat market transactions. The demand for rubber support is stable and weak. It is understood that as of early November 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.3%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.3%.
SunSirs analysts believe that high raw material prices will support the cost of BR in the short term. Although downstream construction has slightly decreased, there is still a strong demand for rubber support. BR construction has slightly increased, and natural rubber prices are at a stage high. It is expected that the spot market of BR will narrow in the short term, and if the cost side drops significantly in the future, there will still be downward space for BR.
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