According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic refined gasoline and diesel prices fluctuated at a low level in November. As of the 16th, the domestic 92# gasoline price was 8,221.8 RMB/ton, with a half month price increase of 0.86% and a year-on-year increase of 0.39%; The domestic price of 0 # diesel is 7,513.2 RMB/ton, with a half month price decrease of 1.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.03%.
Cost side: Lower crude oil market, insufficient cost support
In November, the crude oil price trend has declined, and there is insufficient support on the news side. As of the 15th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $76.66 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $81.18 per barrel. On the one hand, the rebound in OPEC exports has put pressure on oil prices. Due to the seasonal decline in internal demand in the Middle East region, its export share has increased. Data shows that OPEC crude oil exports have increased by about 1 million barrels per day since reaching a low point in August, which to some extent alleviated the pressure of supply tightening caused by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the market. On the other hand, there are still concerns about the current level of inflation in the United States, indicating that the Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates in the future, causing the US dollar to rise and putting pressure on the prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold denominated in US dollars. On the last hand, the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region. Overall, the crude oil market trend in November has significantly declined, which has affected the sluggish domestic refined oil prices.
Supply side: Shandong Refinery has started to improve its supply side, which is relatively loose
Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has exceeded 70%, and the utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum capacity in refineries in China has remained at a high level. The operating load of refineries in Shandong has increased by 1.5 percentage points to around 64.5%. Overall, the supply of refined oil products in Shandong is relatively loose; The main domestic refineries maintain high load operation and loose supply, which to some extent undermines the domestic refined oil market prices, while the prices of gasoline and diesel remain low.
Demand side: The demand side of the long short game is lower than expected
In terms of gasoline, there has been a short-term loss of holiday support, a return to normal travel demand, a loss of air conditioning oil support, and a decrease in gasoline demand. Some businesses are moderately restocking on dips, and purchasing sentiment is not positive. There is still support for gasoline exports, and the gasoline market is mainly volatile. In terms of diesel, the low price of crude oil is bearish for the diesel market. In addition, with the impact of low temperatures, rain and snow weather, the demand for diesel brought by the infrastructure industry is gradually weakening, and outdoor infrastructure, engineering and other construction projects have declined. However, livestock and poultry exports have increased, fishery production and market demand are relatively prosperous, and diesel demand in agriculture still exists. Long short game, and diesel market prices are mainly volatile.
The market has shown some weakness in the near future due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The crude oil supply in the Middle East has not been significantly affected in the short term, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will still be negative for the international oil price market. The supply and demand sides are intertwined, and the international oil price range is mainly volatile in the short term. In terms of domestic supply, the operating rate of local refineries has not changed much, and the supply side is relatively loose. Downstream demand is mainly in demand, and the short-term trend of gasoline and diesel prices is mainly volatile. In the later stage, as the north gradually replaces negative diesel, there is still room for a rebound in the diesel market.
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