According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from November 9th to 16th (as of 15:00), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose, but overall it still fell. The price has dropped from 2,505 RMB/ton to 2,495 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price decreased by 0.40%, with a maximum amplitude of 1.80%, a month on month decrease of 0.81%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.40%. The coal price has rebounded from a decline, and the macro economy is improving, providing some support for methanol prices. Enterprises and holders have strong quotations, but downstream delivery willingness is average, delivery prices are weak, cost transmission is limited, and methanol market fluctuations are sorted out.
As of the close on November 16th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main methanol futures contract 2401 opened at 2,485 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,504 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,462 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,498 RMB/ton in the late trading session, up 24% or 0.97% from the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,018,096 lots, the position was 975,150 lots, and the daily increase was 7,835.
In terms of cost and supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports are increasing, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishment according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: The Jiujiang Heart to Heart device is planned to restart, leading to an increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: Qingzhou Tian'an device load will increase; The demand for MTBE has increased; Downstream formaldehyde: The Jinyimeng unit is producing at full capacity, resulting in an increase in formaldehyde demand; Downstream chloride: Shandong Jinling Plant plans to resume production, resulting in increased demand for chloride; Downstream acetic acid: Guangxi Huayi Phase II acetic acid plant maintenance will reduce demand. The demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side, maintenance of Shaanxi Shenmu and Guangxi Huayi equipment; Henan Zhonghong, Guizhou Tianfu, Ovi QianRMB, Jingmen Yingde, Xinjiang Xinye, Xinxiang Zhongxin, Shaanxi Shenmu, Inner Mongolia Yigao, Guangxi Huayi, Hebi Coal Chemical, and one unit each in Shaanxi and Shandong have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on November 15th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was $340.00- $341.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 99.00-101.00 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 316.00-317.00 euros per ton, a decrease of 3 euros per ton.
In the future, the price of raw coal may fluctuate, and the cost side boost has not yet been shown. Although the supply side has performed well, downstream demand is expected to increase, and the fundamental contradiction is still not significant. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.
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