According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market is going down unilaterally. From November to the 23rd, the price of asphalt in Shandong region has dropped from 3,806 RMB/ton to 3,452 RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.28%, a month on month decrease of 9.36%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.84%. The main reason for the decline in asphalt prices is the significant decline in international crude oil. Although there was occasional rebound during this period, the support was not strong, and the prices of major production enterprises were stacked twice in a row. At the same time, there was obvious competition for brand resources, and some implemented volume price preferential policies. However, downstream demand was relatively weak, and the asphalt market situation continued to decline.
In terms of supply, the main production enterprises are Jincheng Petrochemical and Qicheng Petrochemical in Shandong Province, which may resume production one after another. However, Haiyou Petrochemical has shifted production, and the supply in the area has steadily increased. Xinhai Petrochemical in Hebei Province plans to increase production, while the supply resources in the northern region are relatively abundant; The main refineries in the southern region maintain intermittent production, and the volume and price stimulate stable shipments. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, with a positive impact on the supply side.
On the cost side, during the same period (November 1st to 23rd), the international crude oil futures market fluctuated and fell, leading to a significant increase in US crude oil inventories. More importantly, weak economic data has exacerbated concerns about future demand. As of the close on November 13th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures' main contract was $81.96/barrel, a decrease of $0.49 or 0.6%.
On the demand side, there is still a demand in the northern region to catch up on work and end up, which provides some support for low-priced shipments, but resource competition is obvious; The demand in the southern region is stable, with many inquiries and low-priced resources being the main focus. The demand side of the asphalt market is influenced by bearish factors.
As of the close on November 23, the oil asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2401 opened at 3,518 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,554 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,460 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,554 RMB/ton in the end, a decrease of 7 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.20%. The trading volume was 318,736 lots, the position was 263,932 lots, and the daily increase was 12,765 lots.
Future market forecast shows that asphalt manufacturers have accumulated inventory and slightly increased shipping pressure; The demand is weakening day by day, the supply-demand contradiction is gradually rising, and the market price is bearish. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market is operating weakly.
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