On the supply side, the weather in Hainan production area has improved, and there has been an increase in raw material production. The Xishuangbanna production area is approaching the end of production, but futures prices have been weak this week, and raw material purchase prices have fluctuated and fallen. The southern part of Thailand experiences more rainfall, resulting in strong prices for raw adhesive materials. The phenomenon of chopping rubber trees in major producing countries overseas, including Thailand and Indonesia, has always existed, especially in situations where rubber cutting and processing profits are poor, and the enthusiasm for rubber cutting is low. Currently, the growth of rubber in Africa is less than the reduction in production in Southeast Asia. In the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam exported a total of 583,000 tons of natural rubber, a 13% year-on-year decrease from last year's 672000 tons. From January to October, Vietnam exported a total of 1.087 million tons of mixed rubber, an increase of 16% year-on-year from 939,000 tons last year. In the first 10 months, Vietnam exported a total of 1.67 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, an increase of 3.7% compared to last year's 1.611 million tons; A total of 1.256 million tons were exported to China, an increase of 14% compared to last year's 1.106 million tons. In October 2023, China's synthetic rubber production was 847,000 tons, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year. The cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China from January to October was 7.508 million tons, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year. In the first 10 months of 2023, Ivory Coast's rubber exports totaled 1.284 million tons, an increase of 18.2% from 1.086 million tons in the same period of 2022.

On the demand side, the operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region this week was 61.05%, an increase of 3.21 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.49 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.89%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.91 percentage points from the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2023, the sales of replacement tires in Europe decreased by 6.9% year-on-year to 59.12 million units. All segmented markets have experienced significant declines. In October 2023, the seasonally adjusted annual sales of light vehicles worldwide reached 94 million units per year, which is basically the same as the revised September data. The global sales of light vehicles in that month increased by nearly 11% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales from January to October also increased by more than 10% year-on-year. In October 2023, the export volume of rubber tires from China reached 710,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume of rubber tires from China reached 7.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. In October 2023, the production of rubber tire outer tubes in China was 84.857 million, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year. The production of rubber tire outer tubes from January to October increased by 14.3% compared to the same period last year, to 81,568.5 million pieces. In October 2023, the total production of all steel tires in China was 12.0376 million, an increase of 22.52% year-on-year and 1.1% month on month. From January to October 2023, the cumulative production of all steel tires in China was 116.0378 million, an increase of 14.48% year-on-year. According to statistics from information monitoring semi steel tire production enterprises, the total production of semi steel tires in China in October 2023 was 51.8247 million pieces, an increase of 30.83% year-on-year and 1.25% month on month. From January to October 2023, the cumulative production of semi-steel tires in China was 48.83059 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.27%.

Inventory: As of November 19, 2023, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.527 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 0.79% compared to the previous period. The total social inventory of dark adhesive in China is 953,000 tons, a decrease of 0.32% compared to the previous period. The total social inventory of light colored glue in China is 574,000 tons, an increase of 2.67% compared to the previous period.

Overall, this week's rubber varieties saw a significant decline, with all three varieties giving up their gains since October. Among them, natural rubber and No. 20 rubber fell 1.65% and 1.48%, respectively. RU fell below the 14,000 RMB/ton mark, while synthetic rubber experienced a weekly decline of 0.16% to 12,330 RMB/ton. At present, the reduction in the supply side of Tianjiao has been priced by the market, but the degree of production reduction still needs to be observed by weather conditions. There are obvious signs of weakening in the demand side. In October, tire export data fell month on month, and year-on-year growth rate decreased. Prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to weak supply and demand.

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