According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the prices of coniferous wood pulp and broadleaf wood pulp still showed a mixed trend in November. On November 29th, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong was 5,970 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.97% compared to the average price of 6,090 RMB/ton on November 1st. On November 29th, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong was 5,300 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.85% compared to the average price of 5,400 RMB/ton on November 1st.
By observing market changes, it can be seen that in early November, the spot prices of coniferous wood pulp and broadleaf wood pulp both showed an upward trend and prices remained firm. However, on November 9th, pulp futures prices experienced a significant decline, leading to a stabilization of spot prices. In terms of supply, the quotation for external pulp continued to increase in November, providing support for the domestic market. The international inventory of pulp shows a trend of destocking, and the circulation of domestic spot wood pulp has not improved significantly compared to the previous period. According to customs data, China imported 3.054 million tons of pulp in October, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, and the pattern of high import volume has not changed.
In late November, the spot prices of coniferous wood pulp and broadleaf wood pulp showed a decline, and the futures prices of pulp also continued to decline. In terms of supply, domestic port pulp inventories continue to decline, and overseas pulp mills have also shown a downward trend in inventory. With the easing of supply pressure, spot prices of wood pulp have loosened and fallen. However, the USD quotation for imported wood pulp remains strong, and the import cost of pulp continues to remain high, providing some support for the spot price of imported wood pulp in China.
In terms of demand, in early November, the downstream paper industry saw some differentiation in business conditions, with both the operating rate and production and sales volume of double adhesive paper and copperplate paper mills rebounding. Downstream paper mills had relatively abundant orders, and their demand for wood pulp remained stable. However, in terms of household paper, the production situation continues to be sluggish, and inventory pressure is still at a historical high.
The correction in wood pulp prices in late November was mainly aimed at digesting the bearish effects of weak supply and demand margins. As downstream demand gradually weakens, it has an impact on the trading of short-term wood pulp spot markets. As the end of the month approaches, the enthusiasm of downstream paper mills to start production has declined, and the market is basically in a state of rigid demand for purchases. There are some preferential and discount actions in some transactions. Affected by the mentality of buying up instead of buying down, new orders have not been trading well recently. Although there have been frequent price increase letters for downstream cultural paper recently, there is still a lack of market demand.
In terms of futures, on November 29th, the opening price of the SP2401 pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,818 RMB/ton, the highest price was 5,848 RMB/ton, and the closing price was 5,602 RMB/ton, with a daily decline of 3.78%. The transaction volume was 515,000 RMB, and the position was 191,228.
SunSirs Wood Pulp Analysts believe that the current spot market prices for wood pulp are weak, with downstream raw paper manufacturers continuing to have strong demand. Some manufacturers have weakened their ability to consume raw materials, and there is insufficient follow-up on terminal orders. This has limited support for the trend of the pulp market. In addition, the decline in pulp futures prices is expected to result in weak spot prices for wood pulp in the short term.
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