On February 19, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States rose sharply, with the main contract at $53.49/ barrel, up $1.44. Brent crude oil futures rose, with major contracts up $1.37 to $59.12 a barrel. Since February 11, the oil price has risen for seven consecutive trading days. On one hand, the impact of China's epidemic has been gradually digested, and the market's impact on the decline of crude oil demand has been significantly reduced. On the other hand, the rise of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and the benefit of OPEC's production reduction have made the oil price continue to rebound. According to the test of business agency, WTI increased by 7.91% and Brent crude increased by 10.98%.
Specifically:
First of all, at present, China continues to introduce new measures to support local enterprises suffering from COVID-19. The combination of financial and fiscal policies has boosted market confidence and eased the pressure on enterprises. In addition, the large-scale resumption of work by enterprises eased some concerns about the decline of fuel demand and also boosted oil prices.
In addition, on February 18 local time, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement, announcing sanctions against Rosneft trading S.A., an oil trading company under Rosneft. The U.S. government said it provided the Venezuelan government with a financial lifeline. The US sanctions against Venezuela have been gradually upgraded to block the "oil route" of Venezuela in an all-round way. Leading to the deepening of market supply and doubts.
Besides, market supply side benefits are gradually emerging, and expectations for OPEC+ composed of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to continue to deepen production reduction are still rising. OPEC has been implementing production reduction to support oil prices. The organization will hold a meeting next month, and the market generally has hopes for meeting expectations. In addition, there is a certain supply risk in Libya. Because of the blockade of ports and oil fields, the supply situation in Libya has deteriorated, thus supporting the rebound of oil prices.
US crude oil inventories rose in the latest week, but gasoline and distillate inventories fell significantly, according to data released Wednesday by the American Petroleum Institute. U.S. gasoline inventories fell 2.7 million barrels in the week to February 14, according to API data, after analysts had forecast an increase of 435,000 barrels. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell 2.6 million barrels last week, after analysts had forecast a drop of 1.46 million barrels. Inventory data also plays a positive role in oil prices.
In the future, SunSirs believes that the current crude oil price is still far lower than the peak value at the beginning of the year (refer to the highest $65.65 in WTI on January 8). The oil price is a short-term rebound and a response to the previous oversold market. The current environment of crude oil is relatively complex, and the trend of global demand cooling is still irreversible, which will be a long-term negative for the oil price. The good supply at present will boost the short-term Oil prices, but crude oil still cannot get rid of the long-term downturn in demand.
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