According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from December 6th to 13th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market dropped from 2,440 RMB/ton to 2,420 RMB/ton. The price drop during the cycle was 0.797%, with a maximum amplitude of 1.39%, a month on month decrease of 1.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%. The import expectation for December remains at a high level, which puts some pressure on market prices. There is not much change in the fundamentals, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, with limited overall market price fluctuations.
As of the close of December 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,409 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,422 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,365 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,368 RMB/ton at the end of the day, a decrease of 22 RMB or 0.92% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,375,140 lots, with a position of 1,087,889 lots and a daily increase of 86,286 lots.
In terms of cost and supply, there is currently not much pressure on power plants to replenish inventory, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. Most procurement plans have been postponed, resulting in low market activity. According to temperature forecasts, with a slight increase in temperature, the demand release from power plants is limited in the short term. Non electric enterprises have entered the traditional off-season and only maintain essential procurement. Under stable supply conditions, the current temperature is one of the main reasons affecting market changes, and the short-term thermal coal market remains stagnant. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Dalian Hengli's new device is expected to be put into operation, while Hubei Hualu continues to increase its load, leading to an increase in demand for acetic acid; Downstream Dimethyl Ether: Jiujiang Xinlianxin Dimethyl Ether Plant storage and operation plan, demand for dimethyl ether may increase; Downstream chloride: The Jiujiang Jiuhong plant has resumed normal production, and the demand for chloride has increased; Downstream formaldehyde: The maintenance of Zibo Dejuyicheng formaldehyde device has been completed, leading to an increase in formaldehyde demand; Downstream MTBE: The shutdown of Debao Road continues to affect production, and some manufacturers have reduced operating loads, resulting in a decrease in MTBE demand. The demand for methanol is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of equipment for Jiangyou Wanli, Ningxia Dadi, Sinopec Chuanwei, Zhongyuan Dahua, and Ningxia Baofeng; Shenhua Mengxi and Yulin Yankuang facilities have reduced production. Jizhong Fengfeng, Jinmei TianRMB, Qinghai Salt Lake, Yunnan Xianfeng, Guangxi Huayi, Hebei Huafeng, and a set of facilities in Hebei have been restored. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 12th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 335.00 to 336.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market was 101.00-102.00 cents per gallon, down 3 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 314.25-315.25 euros per ton.
According to future predictions, with the start of gas restrictions in Southwest China, there will be a downward trend in domestic supply and demand, while there will be no significant changes for the time being. SunSirs Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.
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