This week, cobalt prices had stopped falling and consolidated

According to the cobalt market analysis system of SunSirs, as of December 19th, the price of cobalt was 214,700 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the cobalt price of 219,000 RMB/ton on December 1st; The cobalt price had increased by 0.85% compared to December 11th at 212,900 RMB/ton. The growth rate of the new energy vehicle market had slowed down, but the proportion of installed ternary batteries had rebounded. The shipment volume of mobile phones continued to decrease, and the demand for cobalt in the market was slowly growing. This week, cobalt prices had bottomed out and consolidated.

The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries had rebounded

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in November, China's power battery installation volume was 44.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% and a month on month increase of 14.5%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries was 15.7 GWh, accounting for 35.0% of the total installed capacity; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 29.1 GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total installed capacity. In November, the installed capacity of ternary batteries increased significantly, and the proportion of ternary batteries slightly rebounded, leading to an increase in demand in the cobalt market.

Mobile phone sales rebounded

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in October 2023, the shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 29.162 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. From January to October 2023, the total shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 230 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The shipment volume of mobile phones had increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market had rebounded.

Overview and Outlook

According to data analysts from SunSirs, the sales growth of new energy vehicles in winter had slowed down, but the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries had increased; In October, the shipment volume of mobile phones increased significantly year-on-year, but after the ‘Double Eleven’ and ‘Double Twelve’ promotions, it once again entered a sluggish state. Consumers had planned to take advantage of the price reduction during the promotion to exchange phones, but major mobile phone manufacturers did not lower prices. The decrease in demand for phone replacements affected sales, and the shipment volume of mobile phones continued to decline, resulting in lower than expected demand in the cobalt market. Overall, the supply and demand balance in the cobalt market was relatively stable, and there is still downward pressure on cobalt prices in the future. The downward space for cobalt prices is limited, and it is expected that cobalt prices will consolidate at a low level in the future.

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