According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal stabilized last week. On December 21st, the energy index was 1,028 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 101.17% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)
In terms of origin, the prices of coal mines in the main production area are relatively stable, and some coal mines adjust their prices slightly based on transportation conditions. With the improvement of road conditions and the increase of coal hauling vehicles in the mine, inventory pressure has been alleviated.
In terms of downstream ports, coal prices slightly adjusted last week. Mainly due to the cooling down, market sentiment has warmed up. The daily consumption of power plants has increased. Due to weather conditions, the amount of port imports has decreased, but downstream demand has increased due to the impact of temperature.
The China Coal Industry Association has announced that since November, China's macroeconomic situation has shown a recovery and improvement, with domestic heating coal consumption entering the peak season and coal demand growing rapidly. The domestic coal supply is relatively sufficient, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. Data shows that in November, the production of raw coal reached 410 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to October, with a daily average production of 13.799 million tons. From January to November, the production of raw coal reached 4.24 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.
SunSirs analysts believe that in terms of production areas, coal mines have recently seen a decrease in inventory due to improved road conditions. In terms of downstream ports, prices slightly increased last week. As the weather cools down, the demand for thermal coal from power plants increases, but overall demand may be limited, so there may be limited room for growth. Specifically, it depends on downstream market demand.
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