Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the prices of rebar and wire rods in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions had slightly decreased this week. As of the 22nd, the average price of rebar HRB400 in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions was about 3,971.78 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the beginning of the week; The average price of high line HPB300 in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions was 4,141.2 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.78% compared to the beginning of the week.

Analysis review

Market aspect: As the weekend approached, the national engineering demand was 47,640 tons, with a 42% increase in demand compared to the previous trading day. From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 10,404.5 billion C, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% (calculated according to comparable standards, see Note 6 for details); Among them, residential investment was 7,885.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.0%. From January to November, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 8313.45 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the residential construction area was 58.5309 million square meters, a decrease of 7.6%. The newly constructed area of housing is 87.456 million square meters, a decrease of 21.2%. Among them, the newly constructed residential area was 63.737 million square meters, a decrease of 21.5%. The completed area of houses was 652.37 million square meters, an increase of 17.9%. Among them, the completed residential area was 47.581 million square meters, an increase of 18.5%.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in November 2023, China exported 8.005 million tons of steel, an increase of 66,000 tons from the previous month and a month on month increase of 0.8%; From January to November, the cumulative export of steel reached 82.658 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%.

Inventory and Production: This week, the inventory and weekly production of rebar increased, while the weekly production and inventory of wire rods decreased.

On the upstream side, the coke market continued to operate steadily; Port iron ore fluctuated and rose; The scrap steel market was generally stable, with some regions still experiencing price increases. On the news side, due to the intensification of pollution in some areas of Hebei, emergency response levels had been raised in many places. Some enterprises had been required to stop production restrictions from 0:00 on December 23. There were rumors that production restrictions will continue until after New Year's Day next year, which is expected to have a significant impact on the supply of profile varieties. Tangshan, Hebei had been restricted in production of billets and rolled products, resulting in a 10 RMB/ton increase in the ex factory price of ordinary carbon billets. Due to limited demand during the off-season, there were still obstacles to shipments. The weather was sunny and cold, and there was no large-scale procurement at the construction site. Intermediaries were normal in supplementing orders.

Market outlook

The price of raw materials had risen, and downstream demand was weak. It is expected that the price of rebar and wire rode will mainly fluctuate at high levels in the market.

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