Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, in December, the price of seamless tubes first increased and then decreased. At the beginning of the month, the quotation for 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,610 RMB/ton, but at the end of the month, it dropped to 4,597.5 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.51%.

Analysis review

On the supply side, the raw material side rebounded after falling, and the Shandong region was affected by environmental production restrictions. Some tube factories continued to maintain their production lines, and the supply side might contract slightly; The social demand continued to decline, and traders had a low willingness to replenish inventory, resulting in a significant decrease in social inventory.

In terms of demand: After entering December, the demand for seamless tubes had gradually declined, and the existing inventory of market traders was relatively sufficient. Most of them indicated that they mainly focused on digesting existing inventory, and their willingness to replenish inventory was not strong. From the perspective of seamless tube production enterprises, the inventory in the factory was 690,300 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons on a weekly basis and a decrease of 2,100 tons on a monthly basis; Raw material inventory reached 285,100 tons, an increase of 23,400 tons compared to the previous week and a year-on-year increase of 14,500 tons on a monthly basis. The pressure on the factory to release goods was high, and the market demand was not smooth. This week, the inventory in the factory had accumulated.

In terms of exports: According to the latest statistics from customs, China's exports of seamless tubes reached 431,800 tons in November, a month on month increase of 0.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.56%; From January to November, China exported a total of 5.2073 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 17.08%. In November, China imported 8,900 tons of seamless tubes, a decrease of 3.26% month on month and 1.11% year-on-year; From January to November, China imported 98,300 tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year decrease of 9.07%.

Market outlook

In summary, the price of raw material tube billets first fell and then rose. As of December 26th, there was still cost support on the production side, and the ex factory prices of tube factories were mostly stable, with some raising prices. As of December 26th, the supply of the factory was relatively loose, and some continued to undergo maintenance. During the traditional off-season, demand in both the north and south had declined, while downstream demand for rush work had gradually contracted, resulting in a tight balance between supply and demand. Overall, it is expected that the prices of seamless tubes nationwide will continue to consolidate in the short term.

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