According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber trend in December first fell and then rose. The spot rubber market in China was around 12,680 RMB/ton on December 1st, and around 13,060 RMB/ton on December 31st, with an increase of 3.00%.
In December, natural rubber first fell and then rose. The Shanghai rubber 05 contract fluctuated from around 13,600 RMB/ton to 13,200 RMB/ton, and then rose again to around 14,200 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 12,200-12,400 RMB/ton, bulk at around 11,000-11,200 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 10,200-10,300 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 10,100-10,300 RMB/ton.
On the supply side: Thailand is currently in the peak season for rubber cutting, but local areas are experiencing floods and limited raw material output; Some production areas in Vietnam have entered a period of reduced production, and factories are gradually entering a reserve period; Hainan production areas in China have gradually entered a period of cutting cessation; The Yunnan production area has entered a period of complete cessation of harvesting. Before the new year, the processing plant's enthusiasm for rubber collection and production increased, supporting the natural rubber market. As of December 24th, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 664,600 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 0.59% month on month. Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory, and the rate of total inventory reduction has slowed down.
On the demand side, tire production in December remained stable in the early stage and decreased in the later stage due to factors such as environmental protection and off-season, which weakened the support for rubber demand at the end of the month. It is understood that as of late December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 4.90%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.
Macro factors: In December, the international crude oil price trend fluctuated downward, geopolitical factors eased, and shipping in the Red Sea region resumed. As a result, international oil prices have fallen. Inflation pressure still exists, and crude oil demand is poor. Currently, the demand for oil products in Europe and America is in the off-season, which has suppressed crude oil prices. The results of the OPEC+ production policy meeting did not meet market expectations, and the reduction in production was less than expected; The voluntary nature of the reduction in production is questionable, and the supply side will face greater pressure in the future.
Currently, domestic and foreign raw material output is limited, and Yunnan region has entered a comprehensive shutdown period. Some production areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and Hainan have entered a shutdown period due to weather and other reasons; Half steel tire enterprises have sufficient foreign trade orders and high operating rates, which support the market situation of natural rubber; The downstream sentiment of "buying up but not buying down" is heating up, coupled with the fire at Qingdao Bonded Warehouse on the 30th, and the current losses of Tianjiao cannot be determined. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market may rise in the near future after the New Tear holiday.
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