Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate had slightly dropped after New Year's Day, while the price of battery grade lithium carbonate had fluctuated. On January 4, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 93,400 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.64% compared to the average price of 94,000 RMB/ton on December 31. On January 4th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 103,000 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on December 31st.

Analysis review

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate had gradually returned to stability this week, with slight adjustments in price. Most companies focused on stability in their quotations. In terms of supply, domestic lithium salt manufacturers were still stable in production, while some lithium salt enterprises with smaller production capacity in certain regions gradually entered a state of production reduction and shutdown around January. After the New Year holiday, some lithium salt companies had reduced their shipping pressure, but their willingness to ship individual items remained sluggish. Some lithium salt companies with strong price support attitudes had remained relatively unchanged in their pricing attitudes compared to before the holiday.

In terms of demand, against the backdrop of the decline in spot prices of lithium carbonate and the expected reduction in orders, most positive electrode material companies maintained a low raw material inventory management strategy. There was no willingness to purchase bulk lithium carbonate at high prices in downstream and terminal markets. Some ternary material companies had seen a slight increase in procurement driven by recent orders, while most downstream companies such as positive electrodes had reported no demand for replenishment in the short term.

The price of lithium hydroxide had slightly declined, affected by the downward trend in upstream spodumene concentrate prices and lithium carbonate prices, maintaining a weak operation and dragging market sentiment. Downstream procurement had followed slowly, with a cautious focus on demand and a strong wait-and-see attitude. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market was still relatively low.

Downstream ferrous lithium phosphate prices had fluctuated downward, while upstream cost support was weak and under pressure, causing prices to continue to decline. In addition, the market lacked upward momentum, downstream demand had not met expectations, market shipping pressure remained high, and inventory remained high, causing manufacturers to continuously lower prices.

In terms of futures, on January 4, 2024, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 106,500 RMB/ton, the highest price was 107,150 RMB/ton, and the closing price was 100,450 RMB/ton, with a daily decline of 6.69%. The transaction volume was 194,900 lots and the position was 148,982 lots.

Market outlook

According to lithium carbonate analysts from SunSirs, lithium salt companies continued to maintain a high price shipping attitude. As the price of lithium carbonate drops to a relatively low level, the phenomenon of positive electrode material companies inquiring about prices from lithium salt companies was gradually increasing. However, actual transactions were still not good, and the market was still mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate in the short term may remain weak and stable.

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