According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp have maintained an upward trend since New Year's Day. On January 5, 2024, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,890 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.68% compared to the average price of 5,850 RMB/ton on December 31. On January 5th, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong was 5,050 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.2% compared to the average price of 5,040 RMB/ton on December 17th.
By observing market changes, it can be seen that both softwood pulp and hardwood pulp prices showed an upward trend last week, and pulp futures also showed an upward trend. In terms of supply, with the outbreak of political events in the Red Sea region, the arrival time of domestic wood pulp at the port may be delayed, and the rising sea freight costs have also increased costs. Last week, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports decreased by 3.8% compared to the previous week, while the inventory of international pulp producing countries and Europe both decreased. The bullish sentiment boosted the price of wood pulp.
In terms of demand, there is still insufficient demand from downstream paper mills, and the market trading situation is sluggish. Although the external quotation for wood pulp in January was slightly adjusted, with the end of heavy pollution weather in Hebei and other regions, downstream raw paper plants are about to restart one after another, which has led to a stronger consolidation of the wood pulp price range.
In terms of futures, on January 5, 2024, the opening price of the SP2405 main contract for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,900 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,872 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,900 RMB/ton, with a daily decline of 0.81%. The trading volume was 459,600 lots, and the position was 182,271 lots.
The prices of downstream white cardboard and gray background white cardboard have remained stable. On January 5th, the average market price of white cardboard 230g-400g was 5,240 RMB/ton, while the average market price of gray background white cardboard 250g was 4,065.67 RMB/ton. At present, the shipment of white cardboard and gray background whiteboard in the market has slowed down, and the overall enthusiasm of traders to place orders has significantly declined. Some enterprises have shown an increasing trend in inventory. However, traders have increased their risk aversion by reducing inventory, and the year-end is at the completion point of the annual task volume. It is not ruled out that there may be a possibility of price reductions and profit concessions in the future. Currently, supported by market price hikes, businesses are mainly wait-and-see for the time being.
SunSirs Wood Pulp Analysts believe that the current Red Sea shipping incident is receiving more industry attention. If the domestic import quantity continues to decrease, it will lead to a shortage of domestic supply. In addition, the increase in sea freight prices will increase costs. But as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the operating rate of paper mills has declined, and demand performance is poor. It is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term.
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