Price Trend
According to data monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of LNG on February 24 was 3,190 RMB/ ton, up 6.33% from last Monday (February 17), down 22.70% from the same period last year. On February 24, the LNG commodity index was 78.63, up 1.48 points from the previous day, down 62.37% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 14.20% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of February 24, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3,210 RMB/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,150 RMB/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,300 RMB/ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 2,150 RMB/ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao was 3,350 RMB/ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan lvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3,210 RMB/ton. The price of LNG varies in different places.
Market analysis: after the Spring festival, the domestic enterprises have a high enthusiasm to return to work, the market demand has increased, the overall trading has turned better, and the LNG price has increased continuously. At present, LNG transportation conditions have been greatly improved. Most regions in the country have cancelled the prevention and control stations set up on high-speed toll stations and national and provincial trunk roads since 0:00 on the 21st-24th, and the traffic in many places has been restored in succession, which is conducive to the shipment of LNG manufacturers. Recently, the start-up of LNG plants has been resumed, and the operation rate has increased. LNG plants have been actively discharging, and the shipment situation has improved. Domestic shipments began to increase, but mostly low-cost shipments. With the downstream enterprises returning to work and increasing demand, there may be a tight supply situation in some areas. In addition, due to the low LNG price in the early stage, the downstream market is active, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is good, the delivery of liquid plants is improved, the liquid level is gradually reduced, and the LNG price continues to rise.
China National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on February 22, from February 1 to June 30, 2020, the off-season natural gas price policy was implemented in advance, and the gas price of a large number of pipeline natural gas enterprises declined. This policy vigorously promoted the pace of downstream enterprises' resumption of work. In the market dominated by the downstream, the end demand will stimulate the LNG market price to rise, but with the increase of the resumption of work in the liquid plant, the output will increase, and the future market price will rise There is a risk of reduction.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were three kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on February 24, 2020. The top 3 commodities were LNG (2.57%), LPG (1.25%) and gasoline (0.11%). There were seven kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were MTBE (-1.61%), Brent crude oil (-1.37%) and DME (-1.19%). The average price of this day was -0.2%.
Market Forecast
According to the LNG analyst of SunSirs, at present, the transportation in many places is recovered, the demand of terminal enterprises increases after the resumption of work, and the trading and investment of LNG market turns better. In the short term, consolidation is the main trend. With the gradual increase of LNG production, the sales pressure of liquid plants increases, and it is expected that there will be a downward adjustment in the future.
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