According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall domestic natural rubber spot price declined in the first half of January. The spot rubber price in China's natural rubber market was around 12,820 RMB/ton on January 15th, a decrease of 1.84% from around 13,060 RMB/ton on January 1st.
In January, the natural rubber market fluctuated and declined, with the Shanghai rubber 05 contract fluctuating from around 14,200 RMB/ton to around 13,400 RMB/ton, and then rising to around 13,900 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 12,300-12,400 RMB/ton, bulk at around 11,000-11,100 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 9,900-10,000 RMB/ton, and domestic latex bulk at around 10,200-10,400 RMB/ton.
On the supply side, raw material output is limited and prices remain high. The southern part of Thailand is affected by precipitation and cutting is hindered, while the northeastern part of the country is gradually entering a cutting halt period; Vietnam's production areas have gradually entered a period of cutting cessation; Hainan production areas in China have gradually entered a period of cutting cessation; The Yunnan production area has entered a period of complete cessation of harvesting. Recently, most of the raw materials in the processing plants are reserved for the early stage, and some factories will gradually shut down later this month. As of January 14, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 675,800 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons or 0.55% compared to the previous period. Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory, and the rate of total inventory reduction has slowed down.
On the demand side: After the holiday, downstream tire companies partially restarted their maintenance equipment, resulting in an increase in tire production and a slight rebound in demand for rubber. It is understood that as of mid January 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is around 50%-60%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is around 7.2%.
Import and export: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 723,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in December 2023, a decrease of 5.1% from 762,000 tons in the same period of 2022..
Currently, domestic and foreign raw material output is limited, and domestic production areas have basically entered a shutdown period. Some foreign production areas have entered a shutdown period, and strong raw material prices support the natural rubber market; Tire companies have seen an increase in production, supporting the natural rubber market. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will experience high volatility and consolidation in the near future.
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