The current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on January 17th. The retail price of refined oil has been lowered, and the retail price in 2024 has experienced an upward trend. The crude oil market has fluctuated widely during the cycle, and the rate of change has narrowed in a negative direction. The retail price of refined oil in 2024 will experience the "first drop".
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has not changed much. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $72.40 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $78.29 per barrel. On the one hand, the disturbance of the geopolitical situation, coupled with the reduction of production in the Shalala oil field in Libya, has led to market concerns about supply issues, and crude oil prices have been supported and increased. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's comprehensive reduction in crude oil prices has raised concerns about future energy demand in the market, as well as increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), putting pressure on the oil market. In addition, the continuous rise in US refined oil inventories, the strengthening of the US dollar, and weak demand have weighed on oil prices. The combination of bullish and bearish factors has led to fluctuations in the international oil price range during this cycle. As of the 17th, the change rate of crude oil varieties was -1.01% on the 10th working day. It is expected that gasoline will be reduced by 50 RMB/ton, diesel will be reduced by 50 RMB/ton, and the discounted prices will be 92# 0.04 RMB/ton, 95# 0.04 RMB/ton, and 0# 0.04 RMB/ton.
In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rate of Shandong refining has slightly increased. With the issuance of quotas, the shortage of raw materials in some refineries has eased. Overall, the operating rate of Shandong refining under atmospheric and vacuum conditions has increased, and the operating rate of Shandong refining has risen to around 66%; There is not much change in the operation of domestic main refineries, and the supply of Shandong local refineries has slightly increased, which has a certain negative impact on prices. As the Spring Festival travel season approaches, some businesses have started to prepare in advance, resulting in an increase in gasoline procurement. Overall, the gasoline market price trend is mainly volatile, and the overall change is not significant.
In terms of diesel: The supply of diesel has slightly increased, coupled with the fluctuation of crude oil prices on the cost side, there is no actual positive effect on diesel supply. In addition, with the impact of low temperature, rain and snow weather, diesel demand in the infrastructure industry has gradually weakened, and outdoor infrastructure, engineering and other construction projects have declined. Transportation has been hindered, and diesel demand is sluggish, maintaining a low level in the diesel market.
Looking at the future: Currently, there is still a long short game for crude oil, with US crude oil production maintaining a high level of operation, and there is pressure on global crude oil supply; However, geopolitical tensions pose certain risks to supply, especially the expectation of short-term supply disruptions that will raise the risk premium of crude oil. Overall, the range of crude oil is mainly volatile. In terms of domestic supply, refineries in Shandong may slightly increase their production, and businesses are gradually starting to stock up before the Spring Festival. In addition, diesel prices are at a low level, and it is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel will rise slightly in the short term.
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