According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot price has been fluctuating recently. The spot rubber price in China's natural rubber market was around 12,750 RMB/ton on January 24th, down 0.55% from around 12,820 RMB/ton on January 15th.

Recently, the natural rubber market has been volatile, with Shanghai Rubber 05 contract fluctuating between 13,500 RMB/ton and 13,900 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 13,100-13,200 RMB/ton, bulk at around 11,900-12,000 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 10,700 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11,000 RMB/ton.

On the supply side, raw material output is limited and prices remain high. The southern part of Thailand is affected by precipitation and cutting is hindered, while the northeastern part of the country is gradually entering a cutting halt period; Vietnam's production areas have gradually entered a period of cutting cessation; Hainan production areas in China have gradually entered a period of cutting cessation; The Yunnan production area has entered a period of complete cessation of harvesting. Approaching the Spring Festival, we are entering a seasonal off-season for construction, and some factories are gradually shutting down. As of January 21, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 670,600 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons or 0.77% compared to the previous period. Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory, and the rate of total inventory reduction has slowed down.

On the demand side, downstream tire companies have partially restarted their maintenance equipment, resulting in an increase in tire production. It is understood that as of mid January 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is around 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is around 7.2%.

Import and export: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 723,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in December 2023, a decrease of 5.1% from 762,000 tons in the same period of 2022.

Currently, domestic and foreign raw material output is limited, and domestic production areas have basically entered a shutdown period. Some foreign production areas have entered a shutdown period, and strong raw material prices support the natural rubber market; Tire companies have seen an increase in production, providing support for the rubber market; In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches and we enter a seasonal off-season for construction, some factories are gradually shutting down. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.

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