According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal has been consolidating this week. On January 25th, the energy index was 1,016 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.91% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 98.83% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

In terms of origin, as the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines that have completed production shutdown and maintenance by the end of the year have also experienced a tightening of coal supply due to rainy and snowy weather, as well as safety inspections. As the Spring Festival approaches, limited coal mines are gradually taking a break, but now the purchasing demand for terminal power plants is average, and traders are mainly in a wait-and-see mood.

In terms of downstream ports, coal prices have stabilized and there is relatively little market demand. Transportation is mainly based on long-term coal contracts, and traders have hopes for an increase in coal prices, still adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Recently, the temperature has dropped, but the daily consumption of power plants has not shown a significant performance, and the non electric industry is mainly based on on-demand procurement.

According to data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, prices of various coal types in China continued to decline in mid January. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: the price of anthracite (washed lump, volatile content≤8%) is 1,012.1 RMB/ton, a decrease of 22.2 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 2.1%. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 702.7 RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.9 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 1.4%. The price of Shanxi Damian (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 805.7 RMB/ton, a decrease of 16.2 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 2.0%. The price of Shanxi Youmix (high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 915.7 RMB/ton, a decrease of 16.2 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 1.7%. The price of coking coal (main coking coal with sulfur content<1%) is 2,375.0 RMB/ton, a decrease of 135.7 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 5.4%.

SunSirs analysts believe that the recent trading atmosphere of coal mines in terms of origin is average. In terms of downstream ports, prices have slightly stabilized. Power plants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase according to demand. With the arrival of the Spring Festival, various industries are gradually taking a break, and the demand for industrial electricity is weakening. There is not much room for the increase in terminal coal consumption. It is expected that the price of thermal coal will mainly consolidate, depending on downstream market demand.

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