According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from January 19th to 26th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province first fell from 3,560 RMB/ton and then rose to 3,548 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.36%, a month on month increase of 2.56%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.56%. Individual refinery prices first fell and then rose, leading to a slight loosening of the asphalt market prices. In addition, some areas experienced cooling and snowy weather, resulting in a lack of demand for downstream terminals. Construction in most southern regions has entered the final stage, while there is a demand for stockpiling in northern regions before the holiday. As the year-end approaches, the atmosphere of asphalt trading will further weaken.
On the supply side, the main production enterprises are Shandong Shengxing resuming production, Jiangsu Xinhai stabilizing production, Jinling Petrochemical increasing production, and the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased compared to the previous month, which has a negative impact on the supply side.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Within the same cycle, the International Energy Agency predicts that global demand will increase, coupled with low commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, international crude oil futures prices will slightly recover and consolidate. As of January 18th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.
On the demand side, the market demand has gradually stopped, with some contracts mainly entering the warehouse, and the trading atmosphere is weakening. The demand for asphalt in the market is mixed.
As of the close of January 25th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2403 opened at 3,770 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,780 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3,752 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,770 RMB/ton in the last trading day, an increase of 12 RMB/ton or 0.32% compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 112,255 lots and a holding volume of 137,731, with a daily increase of -14,281.
In the future market forecast, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the demand for asphalt spot will gradually weaken. However, considering the limited supply of refinery resources, some inventories will remain low, and the overall market will be in a situation of weak supply and demand. The asphalt analyst of SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate.
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