According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from January 19th to 26th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market increased by 2,563 RMB/ton from 2,445 RMB/ton. The price increased by 4.84% during the cycle, with a month on month increase of 3.95% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.71%. During the week, there were relatively few socially available spot goods, coupled with the impact of weather and other factors on unloading speed. At the same time, the transportation cost from the northwest production area to the sales area market increased, leading to a significant increase in domestic methanol prices. As supply gradually recovers, downstream receiving sentiment is average, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.
As of the close of January 26th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,440 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,444 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,421 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,437 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, a decrease of 5% or 0.20% compared to the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 752,009 lots, and the position was 843,382 lots, with a daily increase of -2,066.
In terms of cost and supply, most coal mines in the production area are currently maintaining normal production and sales, while some private mines are shutting down near the Spring Festival holiday, resulting in a contraction in overall supply levels; Affected by the recent stalemate in the port market, the overall trading atmosphere in the production area is average, downstream purchasing is weak, and there is greater pressure on coal sales in the market. Some coal mines have a phenomenon of top storage in their inventory, and the prices at the pit mouth continue to operate weakly and steadily. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream chlorides: Ningbo Juhua plant resumed operation, resulting in an increase in chloride demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Chongqing Wanlilai and Qianjiang Jinhua Run have expectations of restarting, leading to an increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream glacial acetic acid: Yankuang Phase I and Sinopec Great Wall Plant have recovery expectations, leading to an increase in demand for glacial acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: After the construction of Debao Road, the demand for MTBE has increased; Downstream formaldehyde: The Beijing Hong Kong auxiliary agent and Binzhou Hengyun equipment have been shut down, and Lianyi has been operating with reduced load, resulting in a decrease in formaldehyde demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of coking units in Xinxiang Zhongxin, Guizhou Tianfu, and Shanxi; Shanghai Mongolia Energy, Inner Mongolia Hebaitai, Inner Mongolia Baogang, Inner Mongolia Qinghua, and Inner Mongolia Shilin facilities have reduced production; Guangxi Huayi, Xinxiang Zhongxin, JiuRMB Chemical, Chongqing Cabele, Jiangsu Sopu, Shanghai Mongolia Energy, Sichuan Daxing, Inner Mongolia Baogang, Inner Mongolia Donghua, Inner Mongolia Shilin, and Qitaihe Jiwei facilities have been restored. The overall recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on January 25th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 349.50-350.50 US dollars per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 97.00-98.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 269.50-270.50 euros per ton, a decrease of 2.75 euros per ton.
According to future predictions, coal provides moderate support for methanol production costs. The market has abundant supply of goods, and as the holiday approaches, there is a clear expectation of a weakening demand for formaldehyde, as well as a gradual slowdown in transportation speed. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that there is a possibility of a short-term decline in domestic methanol market prices.
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