Price trend

The cost driven market had reappeared. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market had continued to rise since mid January. As of January 28th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7,632 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.83% compared to January 15th. Polyester staple fiber production enterprises had seen an increase in maintenance equipment and a decline in production. However, on the demand side, downstream production continued to decrease, resulting in weak demand for polyester staple fibers and dragging down price increases.

Analysis review

The Red Sea crisis had further escalated, and international crude oil prices maintained a volatile upward trend. As of January 25th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was 77.36 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 81.96 US dollars per barrel. The planned maintenance of PTA large factories had increased, and market supply expectations had improved. It is expected that PTA inventory in March may shift from accumulated inventory expectations to destocking expectations, causing some traders to show reluctance to sell and continuously boosting PTA prices. As of January 28th, the average PTA market price in East China was 6,007 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.05% compared to January 11th.

As the end of the year approaching, the trading atmosphere in the market may continue to weaken, and there may be an increase in downstream shutdown and holiday factories. The willingness to start production in the yarn factory had decreased, and the purchasing enthusiasm was average. Downstream customers have reported a backlog of finished product inventory, while purchasing raw materials remained in demand. In terms of price, the pure polyester yarn market was mainly focused on observation and consolidation, maintaining stability. Among them, the reference price for the pure polyester yarn market in Shandong region was quoted at 12,475 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that on the demand side, downstream shutdown and holiday factories may continue to increase, leading to a decrease in demand for polyester short fibers. But next week, four sets of polyester short fiber plants in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian are planned to reduce production, involving an annual production capacity of 1.03 million tons. It is expected that the trend of construction will decline, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. In addition, the increase in raw material costs has a greater impact on the price of polyester staple fibers, and the market price of polyester staple fibers may continue to rise in the short term.

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