According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in late January. The spot rubber market in China was around 12,710 RMB/ton on January 31, down 0.24% from around 12,740 RMB/ton on January 22.

Recently, the natural rubber market has been volatile, with Shanghai Rubber 05 contract fluctuating between 13,400 RMB/ton and 13,800 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 13,300-13,400 RMB/ton, bulk at around 12,300-12,400 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 10,900-11,300 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11,000 RMB/ton.

On the supply side, raw material output is limited and prices remain high. Thailand is gradually entering a shutdown period; Vietnam's production areas have gradually entered a period of cutting cessation, with 70-80% of them being cut off; Hainan and Yunnan production areas in China have entered a period of complete cessation of harvesting. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the holiday season with limited procurement. As of January 28, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 658,000 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons or 1.88% compared to the previous period. Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory, and the rate of total inventory reduction has slowed down.

On the demand side, downstream all steel tires continue to rise slightly, and semi tire production is stable, providing rigid support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of late January 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was around 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is around 7.2%.

Import and export: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 723,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in December 2023, a decrease of 5.1% from 762,000 tons in the same period of 2022.

At present, domestic and foreign raw material output is limited, and domestic production areas have entered a comprehensive shutdown period, while some foreign production areas have entered a shutdown period. The strong prices of raw materials support the natural rubber market; Slowing orders from tire companies have limited support for the rubber market; In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches and we enter a seasonal off-season for construction, some enterprises are entering a holiday state. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the near future.

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