According to monitoring data from the Hunan Provincial Department of Commerce on the circulation market of production materials throughout the province, from January 15th to 21st, the average sales price of coal in Hunan Province was 1062.92 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. By variety, the average sales price of anthracite coal is 1390.25 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.3%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15%; The average sales price of bituminous coal was 899.25 RMB/ton, unchanged, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%.
The coal market prices in Hunan Province have rebounded slightly after five consecutive weeks of decline, with stable coal supply and market inventories still at a relatively high level. The daily consumption of power plants has slightly increased, and the demand in industries such as steel, cement, and chemical industry is flat, only maintaining essential procurement.
The recent coal market prices are mainly influenced by the following three factors: firstly, the growth rate of coal supply release will slow down. Restore coal import tariffs, increase coal import costs, and expect a decrease in coal imports. In addition, under the background of "dual carbon", coal production will be optimized, and the approval of new coal mine production will be stricter. The inspection of coal mine safety production before the Spring Festival will also be further strengthened. The overall release of coal production is limited, and coal supply will be marginally weakened. However, under the background of supply guarantee policies, coal production still maintains a high level and the growth rate slows down; Secondly, the transportation guarantee capacity of the whole province continues to strengthen. 90% of coal in Hunan relies on external transportation, and with the opening of various channels for coal to enter Hunan, the supply of coal will significantly increase; Thirdly, the demand for coal will show seasonal growth. Currently, it is the peak winter period before the Spring Festival, and some coal consuming industries have a demand for concentrated pre holiday stocking. In addition, rainy and snowy weather has created a favorable demand for coal, and the increase in electricity and heating demand has accelerated the depletion of coal inventory at the power terminal. Coal demand is expected to gradually recover. The market's expectation for the first quarter of 2024 is positive, and the demand for traditional coal consuming industries is expected to maintain stable growth. Coal demand will remain optimistic. It is expected that the coal market prices in Hunan Province will continue to show a stable to strong trend in the later stage.
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