Price trend

As shown in the above figure, copper prices rose first and then fell this week. As of this weekend, the spot copper quotation was 68,761.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the beginning of the week's 68,888.33 RMB/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 0.56%, which was equivalent to the same period last year.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, copper prices had fallen for 5 weeks and risen for 7 weeks in the past three months, with a slight decline in recent times.

Analysis review

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventory hasd recently slightly declined, with 145,425 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend.

Macroscopically, the macro atmosphere had clearly turned bearish. The unexpectedly strong growth rate of US retail data in December had put pressure on expectations of early interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index had soared to a one month high.

Supply side: Mining side disturbances continued, with the imported copper concentrate index (TC) last week at 27.94 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 13.51 US dollars per ton compared to the previous week. Tight crude copper and accelerated deterioration of zero single TC in copper concentrate inhibited the release of refined copper. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 99,400 tons, an increase of 38,600 tons month on month, a growth rate of 3.86%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.87%; It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in January was 953,600 tons.

On the demand side: The demand was gradually entering the off-season, and the downstream's ability to bear high prices had weakened. However, there was still a demand for stocking before the holiday. Last week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods was 75.45%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points compared to the previous week; The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 41.9%, with a decrease of 2.68 percentage points in the circumferential ratio.

Market outlook

In summary, the industrial copper mine was tight, with zero order TC accelerating the decline, profit squeeze and cold material constraints, and the release of smelting capacity may be lower than expected; Downstream air conditioning and power grids are seeking to replenish inventory on dips, but as copper prices rebound and the Spring Festival approaches, the willingness to replenish inventory is gradually weakening. In the short term, copper prices have a weak and volatile trend.

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