1. Overall trend
The LLDPE commodity index on February 27 was 65.28, which was the same as yesterday, down 44.47% from the highest point of the cycle at 117.56 points (2013-12-11), and an increase of 0.99% from the lowest point of February 19, 2020 at 64.64 points. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)
On February 27, the LDPE commodity index was 58.85, a decrease of 0.39 points from yesterday, and a decrease of 48.07% from the highest point of the cycle at 113.33 (2013-12-08), which was an increase of 1.00 from the lowest point of February 19, 2020, 58.27 %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)
On February 27, the HDPE commodity index was 59.84, an increase of 0.27 points from yesterday, and a decrease of 41.52% from the highest point of the cycle at 102.33 (2014-07-24), an increase of 3.26 from the lowest point of February 24, 2020 at 57.95. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)
2. Market Analysis
The polyethylene market fluctuated on February 27, showing a narrow consolidation trend. Among them, SunSirs monitored the average price of LDPE 2426H in East China at about 7526.5 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was at about 7833.33 yuan / ton; average price of LLDPE 7042 It's around 6816.67 yuan / ton. As of February 26, the price trend of LLDPE in East China has stabilized, the price of LDPE has decreased slightly, and the price of HDPE has increased slightly. International crude oil continued to fall, with a large margin. The 27th linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, which to a certain extent hurt the confidence of industry players. The ex-factory prices of petrochemicals are mostly stable. But the downstream demand is limited, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is light.
Upstream: On February 26, the US WTI crude oil futures market continued the previous two trading days. The price continued to fall, with a large decline. The main contract was reported at 48.73 yuan / barrel, a decrease of 1.17 US dollars (-2.34%). Brent crude oil futures market prices also continued to fall sharply, the main contract was reported at 52.81 US dollars / barrel, a decline of 1.45 US dollars (-2.77%), especially WTI crude oil has fallen to a year low. Crude oil continued to fall sharply on Wednesday, mainly due to the global epidemic.
Futures trends: According to SunSirs monitoring, on February 27, polyethylene futures L2005 opened at 6900, highest price was 6910, lowest price was 6845, closing price was 6890, previous settlement price was 6910, settlement price was 6875, down 20, down 0.29%, trading volume 140869, holdings 302017, daily Masukura 3396. (Quotation unit: Yuan / ton)
3. Future Forecast
The decline in international oil prices continued to weigh on market confidence. As the end of the month, the spot market prices gradually stabilized. Although petrochemical inventory fell, it remained at a high level. At present, sales pressure is still high. The downstream factories are slow to resume work, and the atmosphere of entering the market continues to be sluggish. It is expected that the short-term outlook will be mainly based on weak consolidation.
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