SunSirs: Expectations of Strength in Upstream and Downstream, the Price Center of Polyester Filament Shifted Upwards

Price trend

After the Spring Festival, the domestic polyester filament market prices had adjusted strongly, and mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang had a strong sense of price increase. Among them, POY (150D/48F) was priced at 7,700-8,000 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) was priced at 9,000-9,300 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) was priced at 8,450-8700 RMB/ton. Crude oil was strengthening, on the cost side, there was favorable support, and downstream textile enterprises were gradually resuming work, with a focus on on-demand procurement.

Analysis review

The geopolitical crisis continued to affect supply, and crude oil continued to strengthen. As of February 16th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was 78.46 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 83.47 US dollars per barrel.

During the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic PTA futures market remained silent, and CFR China's trend followed the strength of crude oil. As of February 16th, CFR China rose to 778 US dollars per ton, up 2.10% before the holiday.

In the short term, international crude oil prices are temporarily strong, and the peak production of PX has passed. The future increase in production capacity is limited, and the supply situation remains tight. At the same time, the seasonal maintenance cycle of PX is approaching. In terms of PTA, with the expansion of the industry, there is still overcapacity. By the end of 2023, the total PTA production capacity reached 80.615 million tons, with a growth rate of 16.4%. The processing fee is showing a decreasing trend year by year, and some mainstream PTA suppliers have released maintenance plans for March and April, supporting the temporary healthy operation of processing fees. The downstream terminal textile demand gradually recovered with the resumption of work during the Spring Festival, and with the traditional peak season approaching in March, domestic and foreign trade orders will heat up.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that under the expectation of a stronger upstream and downstream market, the price center of polyester filament may continue to shift upwards.

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