1. Price trend
In February 2020, the domestic market of 1# tin ingots fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 141,200 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and 137,712.50 RMB/ton at the end of the month, down 2.47%.
On February 28, the tin commodity index was 70.15, down 0.42 points from yesterday, down 30.02% from the highest point in the cycle, 100.25 (September 5, 2011), and up 63.67% from the lowest point, 42.86, on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2011 to now).
2. Market analysis
Domestic market: In February, the spot tin market as a whole shows a fluctuating downward trend. Most of the enterprises began to return to work in the middle and late ten days. Most of the enterprises in Yunnan have resumed normal production, and the commencement is acceptable. Most of the enterprises in Jiangxi have resumed production at the end of the month, and some of products have left the factory. As of the 28th day, the quotation was 137,000-138,500 RMB/ton. In the last week, some parts of Shanghai will be replenished after the official resumption of work, but they just need replenishment, and the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is general.
Major domestic events:
National Bureau of Statistics: according to preliminary accounting, the annual GDP in 2019 increased by 6.1% over the previous year: according to the statement released on its official website on the morning of the 28th day of the National Bureau of statistics, the annual GDP in 2019 was 99,086.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry is 7,046.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%; the added value of the secondary industry is 38,616.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%; the added value of the tertiary industry is 53,423.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%. The added value of the primary industry accounts for 7.1% of the GDP, the added value of the secondary industry accounts for 39.0%, and the added value of the tertiary industry accounts for 53.9%.
China's official manufacturing PMI in February: 35.7 predicted value: 46; top value: 50. In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, 24.1 percentage points lower than last month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down. At the same time, the survey results show that with the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the recovery rate of enterprises is picking up rapidly, and production and operation activities are recovering in an orderly manner. It is expected that China's purchasing manager index will improve in March.
Industry: the global epidemic spreading crisis has raised the market's worries about the economic downturn. The global stock market has plummeted, and the risk aversion mood has made gold reach a new high, the bulk commodities have been sold down, and the basic metals at home and abroad have fallen sharply.
3. Future prospects
From March, the domestic epidemic situation has improved, the return rate of enterprises has increased, and the capital pressure of enterprises at the beginning of the month has eased. However, at present, the spread of the epidemic in the world has increased, global investors are worried that it is difficult to calm down, the selling strength of bulk commodities has not decreased, and domestic metals are afraid to be dragged down.
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