According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the market for locally refined and hydrogenated naphtha rose first and then fell after the Spring Festival. As of February 26, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8,206.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.27% from February 18’s 8,184.00 RMB/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 8,200 RMB/ton.

After the Spring Festival, the market for locally refined straight run naphtha first rose and then fell. As of February 26, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8,104.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from February 18's 8,111.50 RMB/ton price. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was around 8,100 RMB/ton.

After the Spring Festival, the naphtha market's terminal demand for replenishment has increased, and refineries are actively pushing for an increase; But with the impact of widespread rain and snow weather, transportation and logistics are hindered, market transactions are light, and prices continue to decline; At present, the overall diesel market is weak, with limited support for the naphtha market.

Upstream: After the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market fluctuated and declined. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve issued a hawkish signal, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; On the other hand, the Gaza ceasefire negotiations suppress the risk premium of crude oil; In addition, the total number of oil and gas drilling rigs in the United States has increased to the highest level since August 2023, and the implementation of OPEC's production reduction is not optimistic, which has suppressed oil prices. The combined influence of bullish and bearish factors has led to a mainly fluctuating downward trend in the international oil price range during this cycle.

Downstream: According to monitoring by SunSirs, the prices of toluene and mixed xylene have increased significantly after the Spring Festival. As of February 26th, the price of toluene was 7,210 RMB/ton, while the price of mixed xylene was 7,440 RMB/ton; The price trend of PX has slightly increased, and the domestic PX operating rate remains above 80%. Downstream provides overall support for the naphtha market.

The international crude oil market is fluctuating downward, and the cost support for the naphtha market is limited; At present, the widespread rainy and snowy weather has ended, and logistics and transportation have basically resumed. However, the ethylene cracking aspect of the refined naphtha terminal continues to be weak, and there is a strong need for replenishment in the restructuring aspect. Market transactions are limited, and it is expected that the refined naphtha market will be mainly weak in the near future.

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