Price Data
Last week (2.24-2.28), the price of refined petroleum coke was slightly reduced. According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1,340 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week, 1,327.50 RMB / ton at the end of the week, down 12 RMB / ton in the week, up or down -0.93% in the week.
On February 28, the petroleum coke commodity index was 103.25, unchanged from the previous day, down 33.64% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 54.36% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: the delivery of refined petroleum coke was good last week, and the prices of some refineries are down slightly.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States is $53.38/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $47.09/ barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.78%; Brent crude oil is $58.50/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $51.73/ barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.57%. The global COVID-19 has a trend of spreading. The spread of globalization worries the market about future economic development, and the price of international crude oil market keeps falling. Downstream: the delivery of calcined coke has improved, and the pre-baked anode calcined coke has not been priced in March, and the downstream enterprises mainly wait and see. The market price of electrolytic aluminum fell, and the trading of graphite electrode enterprises was generally dominated.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), among which the top 2 were methanol (0.50%) and coking coal (0.45%). There were thirteen kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were WTI crude oil (-11.78%), Brent crude oil (-11.57%), and LPG (-8.64%). This week's average was -3.14%.
Market Forecast
Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predict that the market price of local refined petroleum coke will drop slightly this week, some refineries will reduce production in advance, and the market supply is tight. It is expected that the price of local refined petroleum coke will be mainly high in the near future, and the price range may be around 1,300-1,400 RMB/ ton.
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