According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the market for refined and hydrogenated naphtha slightly increased last week. As of February 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 8,211.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.06% from February 26th at 8,206.50 RMB/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 8,200 RMB/ton.

Last week, the market for locally refined straight run naphtha slightly increased. As of February 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8,109.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.06% from February 26th's 8,104.00 RMB/ton price. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was around 8,100 RMB/ton.

At the end of the month, a small amount of essential demand was released in the direction of terminal restructuring, coupled with the rising international crude oil market, refineries actively pushed up prices; At present, the overall diesel market is weak, with limited support for the naphtha market.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating in recent times, with a significant increase in crude oil prices during the Spring Festival period. After the holiday, the crude oil market is mainly fluctuating in the range. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the main driving factor for the crude oil market; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; The total number of oil and natural gas drilling rigs of state-owned energy enterprises has increased to the highest level since August 2023, and crude oil prices have been suppressed.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the toluene market remained stable last week, with toluene inventories continuing to increase and supply pressure remaining; The mixed xylene market has slightly declined, and domestic supply continues to accumulate. In the later stage, with the arrival of the downstream peak season, the demand for mixed xylene is expected to increase to a certain extent; The price trend of PX is downward, with an on-site operating rate of over 90%. The on-site supply of goods is normal, and the sales situation is good. Downstream provides overall support for the naphtha market.

The international crude oil market is fluctuating at a high level, with cost support in the naphtha market; However, currently there is a lack of significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, with a focus on on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market may consolidate at a high level in the near future.

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