On March 2, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States rose sharply, with major contracts rising $1.99 (4.50%), to $46.75/ barrel. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract at $51.90/barrel, up $2.23 (4.50%). It is estimated that WTI and Brent crude oil are the largest one-day percentage increase in nearly seven months according to the monitoring of SunSirs. It is also the first rally since crude oil fell sharply for a week in a row.

First of all, the external macro market news is the main reason for the crude oil rebound. On the evening of March 2, Beijing time, President Trump of the United States called on the Federal Reserve, saying that the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Powell and the Federal Reserve were too slow to act, urging the Federal reserve to intensify efforts to launch monetary easing policy, which led to market sentiment. JPMorgan currently expects the fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at or before its March meeting and another 25 basis points in April. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this month and another 50 basis points in the second quarter, reaching 100 basis points in the first half of the year. At the same time, Japan has also introduced positive policies. On March 2, Bank of Japan governor Kuroda tohiko issued an emergency statement, which made it clear that necessary measures will be taken to "stabilize the financial market". In addition, it is understood that China will invest a lot in the construction of the infrastructure field, and under the influence of the combination of external good news, therefore, after last week's worst week performance since the 2008 financial crisis, US stocks retaliated on Monday. Three major U.S. stock indexes rose, with the Dow reaching 1293, the biggest one-day gain since March 2009. The rebound of the stock market has brought direct benefits to risk assets such as crude oil.

In addition, OPE + continued to release the expectation of deepening production reduction, and the positive crude oil supply side boosted market confidence. At present, the oil market pays close attention to OPEC's meeting held in Vienna from March 5 to 6, at which the possibility of further production reduction will be discussed to balance supply and demand. According to the current news, OPEC has two tools to use, namely, the number of daily production cuts and the duration of production cuts. According to market news, OPEC may reduce production by 1 million barrels per day for 90 days, which will reduce the market by 90 million barrels. The increase of production reduction supports the rebound of oil price. And Russian President Vladimir Putin said Sunday he was ready to work with OPEC partners and believed the organization could help keep oil prices stable for the long term.

At the same time, there are still risk points in the market supply side. On one hand, the impact of the US sanctions on Venezuela has led to the continuous decline of Venezuelan crude oil production. In addition, the current situation in Libya is very unstable, and the port blockade has not been lifted. These supply risk factors are also important drivers of crude oil rebound.

From the perspective of the future market, in the view of SunSirs, the current crude oil price, on one hand, is over falling and rebounding. On the other hand, it is affected by the boost of the external macro good news, but on the demand side, the pessimistic atmosphere of the crude oil demand outlook remains unchanged. Generally, the three institutions have lowered the 2020 crude oil demand growth expectation by a large margin. It is expected that the crude oil will be affected by more market interference factors in the near future In the medium and long term, crude oil is not likely to reverse the market and rise sharply.

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