The current domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on March 4th, and the retail price of refined oil is about to increase. The retail price in 2024 has gone through two increases, one decrease, and one shelving. The crude oil market has risen during the cycle, and the rate of change remains positive. The 2024 refined oil retail price adjustment will face a "third" increase.
Entering this pricing cycle, international oil prices have slightly increased. As of March 1st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.97 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.55 per barrel. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation has an impact, and the instability of the Middle East situation still exists. The market is concerned about supply issues, and crude oil prices are supported. On the other hand, data released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Thursday showed that US crude oil production fell to 13.315 million barrels per day in December, slightly lower than the record breaking 13.319 million barrels per day in November, boosting the crude oil market. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal of delaying interest rate cuts has dampened market confidence. Overall, the international oil price range fluctuates, and the rate of crude oil change during the cycle remains positive. As of the 4th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 3.10%. It is expected that gasoline will increase by 125 RMB/ton, diesel will increase by 120 RMB/ton, and the discounted price will increase by 92# 0.1 RMB, 95# 0.1 RMB, and 0# diesel by 0.1 RMB.
In terms of gasoline, the operating rate of Shandong refineries has slightly declined. In February, Shenchi Chemical underwent a full plant overhaul, and sales during the Spring Festival holiday were average. In order to control inventory, the operating rate of Shandong refineries has slightly declined, dropping to around 58%; Supported by downstream restocking demand, gasoline prices have slightly increased after the holiday. However, with the completion of restocking and the impact of rainy and snowy weather, travel has been restricted, and gasoline demand has gradually declined, leading to a downward trend in gasoline market prices.
In terms of diesel: The supply of diesel has slightly declined, while the cost of crude oil prices fluctuates. Cost support still exists. In terms of demand, some regions in China have experienced rainy and snowy weather, and construction projects have not yet resumed. However, Shandong Refinery was previously affected by snowfall, and prices have been under pressure. Later, with the recovery of logistics transportation, the diesel market has tentatively risen, and the recent trend of diesel market prices has risen.
Currently, there is still a long short game in the crude oil market, and in the short term, crude oil will still be affected by the geopolitical situation, and prices will remain relatively rigid. Shandong's refining production has slightly declined, with a slight decrease in supply; In terms of demand, there is no holiday support in the short term, coupled with the impact of rainy and snowy weather on travel, gasoline demand has not improved, and it is difficult for gasoline prices to rise; The demand for diesel has slightly increased, and the diesel market trend is relatively strong in the short term.
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