Price Data

According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in February was 1,040.50 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month, 1,327.50 RMB/ ton at the end of the month, 287 RMB/ ton up in the month, and 27.58% up and down in the month.

On February 28, the petroleum coke commodity index was 103.25, which was the same as the previous day, 33.64% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 54.36% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: in February, the ground refining petroleum coke rose sharply, mainly affected by COVID-19, the logistics was greatly limited, and the resumption of work became a big problem. Some refineries shut down for maintenance in advance, and the supply of petroleum coke decreased significantly.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States at the beginning of the month was $51.56/ barrel, $47.09/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -8.67%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month is $56.62/ barrel, $51.73/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -8.64%. At the beginning of the month, affected by COVID-19 in China, domestic refineries reduced their operating rates, and domestic crude oil market demand fell sharply. Three major institutions, OPEC, EIA and IEA, simultaneously lowered the growth rate of global crude oil demand this year. In the late ten days, COVID-19 had a trend of spreading in other regions of the world, such as the Middle East and Europe. The spread of globalization worried the market about future economic development. The price of international crude oil market is declining. Downstream: Downstream: the delivery of calcined coke has improved, and the pre-baked anode calcined coke has not been priced in March, and the downstream enterprises mainly wait and see. The market price of electrolytic aluminum fell, and the trading of graphite electrode enterprises was generally dominated.

Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predict that the market of petroleum coke in February will rise sharply, some refineries will be overhauled or reduced in advance, the market supply will be tight, and the supply will not be relieved in the short term. It is predicted that the price of petroleum coke in March will fluctuate at a high level, with a price range of 1,200-1,400 RMB/ ton.

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